There are a lot of Questions with Bend Home Sales

As we published last month, the Bend real estate market is in transition. The steep rise in mortgage rates and continued home price increase has impacted Bend homebuyers to the point where home sales have slowed beyond normal seasonal levels.  It is as if the brakes have been hit and all onboard are bracing for an impact. What that eventual impact will be remains to be seen.

When October, 2022 sales of Bend single family homes are compared with those from October, 2021, the following changes can be noted:

• Average sales price up 6.4% to $823,360*
• Median sales price up 4.4% to $680,000
• Average list price up 17.6% to $934,365
• Median list price up 4.7% to $725,000
• New listings down 23.2% to 129
• Homes for sale up 34.5% to 335
• Pending sales down 40.3% to 123
• Sold homes down 26.1% to 161
• Average days on market up 115.8% to 41
• Median days on market up 237.5% to 27
• Months of supply up 58.3% to 1.9
• Average price per square foot up 4.2% to $400
• Median price per square foot up 6.2% to $375
• Average percentage of original price received down 4.1% to 94.5%
• Dollar volume of sold homes down 21.4% to $132,560,887

 What Does the Data Show for Bend Real Estate Sales?

Although Bend home prices are up compared with the same month a year ago, when we examine earlier months in 2022, home prices have decreased. From the peak in March, the median price of a Bend home has dropped over $100,000. Sellers are not listing at the rate they did last year, which is reflected in the numbers of new listings hitting the market. Days on market are up considerably, as are months of supply, homes for sale and price per square foot. Listings, pending sales, sold homes and percentage of listing price received are all down - reflecting a market in transition in which sellers who need to sell are willing to negotiate and price at a figure which reflects the current market. No longer do home buyers have to waive home inspections or bid up over the asking price in order to "win" the home.  Multiple offers are rare and fewer buyers are looking. 

Predictions for Fourth Quarter Bend Home Sales

Mortgage interest rates hit 7% last week. The last time rates were that high was in the early 2000s; compared with the highest rate of 18.45% which was offered October, 1981, 7% seems relatively low. But interest rates need to be coupled with home prices. In 1981 the average American home cost less than $50,000. In the early 2000s, the average price of a Bend single family home was in the low $200,000. With 7% interest rates and the median Bend home price at $680,000, there are relatively few homebuyers who can afford to purchase.

We predict that Bend home prices will follow their trend from earlier in the summer and continue to drop. Sellers who do not need to sell will take a "wait and see" position, but for those sellers who do need to sell, pricing their home at a figure that works for Bend homebuyers will be essential.