Is the Bend Real Estate Market Overpriced?
The figures are out and the trends we have been following over the past year were again seen in the December 2018 Bend residential real estate sales figures. December 2018 saw a dramatic reduction in Bend home sales on less than an acre compared with December 2017:
- Numbers of homes for sale down 10.4% to 396
- Numbers of homes sold down 15.9% to 159
- Numbers of homes pended down 14.4% to 131
- Average price per square foot on sold homes up 3.8% to $244
- Sold price to original listing price difference down 2.1% to 95%
- Average days of market up 2.8% to 111
- Months of inventory up 8.6% to 2.5 (based on closed sales)
- Average active price up 5.6% to $701,000
- Average sold price up 14.3% to $521,000**
The figures for active listings are extraordinary. We have never had an average active listing price that high before and the average sales price equals that from August, 2018. Typically prices go down in winter in the Bend market, but these trends are the opposite. The balancing act between demand and sales appears to be in flux with prices rising and actual sales dropping.
Our Predictions for 2019 Bend Real Estate Sales
How much the volatility in the stock market or impact of the government shut down has on Bend OR real estate sales is debatable. If the government shut down continues for a long period, it will impact the types of loans buyers can purchase. However, the typical real estate market, like the stock market, has price corrections every seven years on average, and the Bend real estate market is overdue for this correction. The Bend market has been growing on average 10% per year since coming out of the recession. The prices of homes are now such that the words "affordable housing" and "Bend" are not heard together. In addition, there has been a slow down in real estate sales in Bend's feeder markets of the Bay Area and Seattle. We believe 2019 will be the year for a real estate correction in Bend and Central Oregon.
**Data from Central Oregon Multiple Listing Service
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