Bend Oregon Real Estate Blog
Bend Continues to be a Seller's Market in 2015 (3/21/15)
You hear realtors say "We are in a buyer's market" or "We are in a seller's market", but what does that mean? What realtors are typically looking at when they determine this is - How many months of housing inventory do we have? The different types of markets are...
Buyer's Market - More than 6 months worth of inventory.
Balanced Market - About 6 months worth of inventory.
Seller's Market - Less than 6 months worth of inventory.
Bend real estate looks to continue being a " seller's market" for 2015 with currently only 3.6 months of inventory based on closed sales. That means if no more homes were to be put up for sale, we only have 3.6 months of inventory before all homes are sold based on current demand. If we include "pending sales", there would only be 2.3 months of supply. This shortage is also helping the seller's bottom line, as home values are being pushed up as well. The closed sales price for single family homes in Bend is now over $360,000, compared to just $316,000 a year ago.
When will Bend return to a more balanced market? That is harder to determine as expanding the urban growth boundary in Bend continues to be in limbo (developable land is still in short supply), but mortgage rates are expected to rise to about 5% in 2015 (meaning some buyers may be priced out of the market). But until these things happen, we expect Bend to continue to be a strong seller's market through 2015 as buyers continue to look at Central Oregon as a very desirable place to live.
Housing Markets Continue to Improve (2/13/15)
Two major economic indicators, the percentage of distressed sales and the level of cash home buyers, continue to trend toward a more normalized housing market nationally - a trend we are also seeing in the Bend real estate market as well. This week CoreLogic reported a reduction in the level of foreclosed homes at the end of 2014 to be just 552,000, down from 840,000 at the end of 2013 (34.3 % reduction). This continues the streak of reduction of foreclosed homes inventory to 38 months in a row. Also, the percentage of cash buyers in the market continues to decline from its peak, where just four years ago one out of every two homes was purchased by a cash buyer. Cash sales at the end of 2014 now make up just 36% of all home sales… a favorable trend, but still quite a bit higher than the pre-2006 rates below 20%. The reasons given by CoreLogic for the number of cash buyers still being high are 1) a higher level of discretionary income among investors, and 2) home buyers are still finding it difficult to get a home loan.
Thanks to these two indicators, the trend remains positive toward a more normalized real estate market both nationally and in our Bend housing market. However, there still appears to be quite a bit of room for more improvements in the future.
Boomerang Buyers are Coming Back! (1/29/15)
The first wave of “boomerang buyers”, those homeowners who lost their homes due to foreclosures and short sales during the 2008 real estate “crash”, are now “re-entering the market” in the Bend and national real estate markets as the seven-year window passes necessary to repair their credit and again qualify for buying a home. An estimated 7.3 million boomerang buyers are expected to re-enter the US markets over the next seven years starting in 2015 and increasing each year in number through 2018 before tapering off until 2022. According to RealtyTrac, the markets most likely to see the most boomerang buyers will be those with the highest percentage of foreclosed homes along with the lowest median home prices and a largest amounts of Gen-X’rs and Baby Boomers such as Las Vegas Nevada, and Merced or Stockton California. However, we expect to see boomerang buyers in all markets including Bend and Central Oregon real estate markets over the next 7 years as buyers are once again able to qualify for home loans.
Bend Ranks Among Top 10 Ski Towns for Investing (1/15/15)
Bend dropped 2 spots, but still ranks #9 among the top ski towns for real estate investing according to RealtyTrac analyst Daren Bloomquist. Starting with the top 221 ski resorts in the US according to ZRankings, the final analysis used by RealtyTrac included 7 criteria: distance to the nearest airport, unemployment, median home price, yearly price appreciation, rent yields, foreclosure rates, and that “pure awesomeness factor”. Topping the list this year is the ski town of Huntsville Utah which had a median housing price of just $169,950 compared to Bend’s median home price of $249,998.
NAR Chief Economist Projects Strong Home Sales in 2015 (1/1/15)
Chief Economist of the National Association of Realtors (NAR) Lawrence Yun is projecting about a 7 percent rise in home sales in 2015. As the primary reasons for this healthy expansion, Yun points to an improving economy, solid job growth, and rising home prices. Additionally, Yun predicts more first time homebuyers entering the market due to the creation of “new mortgage products” and overall housing confidence with home pricing having risen about 25% over the past three years. However, there are potential “speed bumps” as well, including anticipated rising interest rates and lenders being slow to ease underwriting standards.
Is Housing Affordable in Bend to the Middle Class? (12/1/14)
What Does Falling Oil Prices Mean for Housing (11/20/15)
Housing Inventory Remains Tight for 1st Quarter 2015 (4/10/15)
The Bend Oregon Real Estate market continues to be tight as the 1st quarter 2015 data continues to show an extreme lack of inventory and rising prices for single family homes in Bend. The average price per square foot of single family homes has increased 12% over the same time last year with the average sold price up 19.3%. Buyers are still looking and offering creating a scenario in which there are only 1.7 months of Bend homes for sale in all price points.
This lack of inventory has resulted in multiple offers on available homes and extreme frustration for buyers who don’t have their offer accepted even when they offer over asking price. Based upon available land to build on and the current issues with the City of Bend struggling to get permission to expand the urban growth boundary, it doesn’t appear that this situation of high demand/low inventory will change anytime soon.
Seems Bend makes about every retirement “Best Places” list, including the annual “Top 100 Places to Retire” recently released for 2015 by TopRetirements.com. Specifically, Bend is recognized as being a great place to retire for “active adults where the outdoors is important”. Some of the great features of Bend pointed out in the TopRetirements.com list include a beautiful natural setting, tons of parks and recreational trails, a thriving downtown, endless cultural activities including the Bend Film Festival, many performing arts centers such as the Les Schwab Amphitheater and Tower Theater, continuing educational opportunities with a community and a four-year college, a diversity of housing options including numerous active retirement centers, top notch medical facilities, and a moderate climate.
What doesn’t TopRetirements.com like about Bend as a top retirement community? Not much… but there are a couple of negatives including the distance to a larger metropolitan city like Portland (several hours away), the emergence of traffic congestion, distance to a major airport, higher unemployment rate, and increasing real estate values and rental rates.
But if the continued influx of retirees into Bend is any indication, we expect Bend to remain on the top 100 list in 2016.
Mirror Pond in Downtown Bend
Bend Oregon: A Great Place to Retire (4/27/15)
Home Prices in Bend OR Continue to Rise (5/29/15).
In an article published in the Bend Bulletin May 27, 2015, it was reported that Bend has had the highest yearly home price appreciation in all Oregon metro areas. Home prices have increased 9.25% from 1st quarter 2014 to 1st quarter 2015 and over the last five years, home prices have appreciated nearly 36%. Nationally, Bend has consistently been among the top metro areas for home appreciation since 2013. For local sellers, this appreciation has been a boom; homes that just a few years ago were underwater are now experiencing multiple offers, which have driven the price up even higher. For local buyers, the increased home values have priced many out of Bend, thereby creating more demand for homes in LaPine, Three Rivers South, Prineville and Redmond.
Past Blog Articles for Bend Oregon Real Estate
A Decade Later: Is Bend Real Estate Entering Another Bubble? (6/19/15)
When comparing Bend Real Estate trends from 2005 with those of 2015, we are seeing significant increases in home prices, a serious lack of inventory (especially in the lower end), and many homes for sale receiving multiple offers. The MLS Trend report from June 2015 shows that this imbalance of supply/demand in the market has resulted in an increase of about 22% in the average price per square foot of Bend single family homes between 2005 and 2015. Read More
Bend Listed as One of the Ten Best Places to Live Now
by Men's Journal (7/4/15)
Life is good” in Bend Oregon, states an article in a recent edition of Men’s Journal Magazine. Bend is a “bustling metropolis” according to the article, with a huge network of biking, running, hiking, and ski trails connecting millions of acres of wilderness. All this plus a world class ski area in Mt. Bachelor, internationally known rock climbing at Smith Rock, and abundant river activities including great fishing and Class V river rafting make Bend the perfect place for the outdoor enthusiast.
Although job opportunities are limited, the Men’s Journal article also describes Bend as a mecca for entrepreneurs including the more recent additions of HydroFlask and the many new microbreweries. But it’s not just the endless outdoor activities or entrepreneurial spirit that make Bend so unique - it’s also just a great place to raise a family compared to the hustle and bustle of the big cities like Seattle, WA.
Real Estate sales in Bend continue to be strong. In comparing the second quarter statistics with those from 2014, there are 13.7% fewer homes with 13.5% more sold creating more pressure on existing inventory for buyers. This has pushed prices up with the average price of a June 2015 sold Bend home at $394,000 compared with the average price in June 2014 at $332,000. The average price of a Bend home offered for sale has also increased over $50,000 per home.
So what does this mean for Bend Real Estate sales? Although residential new construction has increased in the city, the average price of new homes has also increased greatly influenced by the demand. And until the state of Oregon permits the city limits to be expanded, the pressure on the available land for development will remain high. Unless an unforeseen economic recession hits again, potential buyers for Bend homes should anticipate a continued increase in home prices.
Bend Real Estate Market Continued to Show Strong Home Sales in 2nd Quarter 2015 (7/14/15)
Trendvision Report 2nd Quarter 2015
What's Up With High End Real Estate In Bend (8/29/15)
Bend Real Estate inventory at the lower end has been extremely limited for months, but what has been the trend with the higher end? Although not as volatile as the lower end, Bend home sales over $500,000 have been solid. According to TrendVision, July 2015 sales in Bend homes over $500,000 are up 346% over July 2012 and 63% over July 2014. The average price of these higher end homes is also up considerably over the same time period - up 29% per sq foot in 3 years and up 7% over 1 year. The building boom in Bend has not been limited to the lower end. Builders are showing confidence again with higher end new homes available for sale up 292% in 3 years and 19% over 1 year. When looking at supply versus sales, the higher end homes in Bend are in a more balanced market with roughly 5 months of supply. There are plenty of higher end homes to choose from, but for sellers who need to sell, there are buyers out there looking to purchase.